Ideas 16-2...Space Research

n6 = 0.05 A large satellite like the Moon plays an essential part in the creation of an Earth type exoplanet. Such a satellite would shield the planet from potential comet and asteroid impacts, create tidal forces which would maintain heat in the planet's core and mantle, thereby helping to maintain the magnetosphere. These forces would also contribute to continental drift and the maintenance of the carbon cycle, as well as create mountain ranges that would contribute to the generation of rain, and long term weather patterns. Huge ocean tides during the initial phases of the planet would no doubt contribute greatly to the creation of life by coastal erosion, leading to a chemical mix we now call sea water, then the primordial soup.

The satellite would also stabilize the axis of spin, creating stable seasons which would assist plants by killing pests during cold winter months. Evidence of continental drift can be seen in mid-ocean spreading, creating ridges often accompanied by volcanic smokers. Pores inside these black smokers are now thought to be the cradle of all life on Earth, though as yet the stages that lead to multi-cellular life still remain an enigma. All of these factors clearly show the need for a large satellite orbiting a life giving exoplanet, or a life giving satellite orbiting a major planet in close orbit around its star, in order to generate the tidal forces necessary. However, although large numbers of Jupiter sized planets have been detected in close orbit around their companion star, and are likely to have numerous moons orbiting them, as happens in our solar system, they are likely to be too small to support their own magnetosphere, and as such are likely to be barren, with no atmosphere and water. The only satellite in our solar system with a dense atmosphere is Titan, a moon of Saturn. It has a nitrogen atmosphere with lakes of methane and ethane, whilst the only one with a magnetosphere is Ganymede.

Our Moon is thought to have been formed from an icy body from the outer solar system, bringing with it plenty of water ice. Since it's known that Earth's water content has primarily not changed for 3.8 billion years, then the impact must have been at or before then. Our solar system is 4.56 billion years old. During the NASA Apollo manned missions to the Moon, the LEM (Lunar Excursion Module) was deliberately crashed into the surface in order to test the new seismometers that the astronauts had just placed there. This is known as the ALSEP (Apollo Lunar Surface Experiment Package)To everyone's surprise the impact caused the Moon to ring like a bell for one hour. On a later mission part of the Saturn 5 rocket, the S-IVB, was deliberately crashed into the Moon. On this occasion the Moon rang for three hours. This suggested that the Moon contains large voids. It also showed that the Moon's surface is only 2.5 miles thick and the crust 20 to 30 miles thick. Shallow quakes in the crust last for up to 10 minutes. How can this be? There are many scientists who claim that the Moon is not hollow, that it smashed itself into small pieces when Theia impacted with Earth. If that's the case, then how did the mascons form, those areas of higher gravity caused by a large mass? Some are associated with impact craters formed during the LHB, but others are not. Some impact craters are up to two miles deep, suggesting that the asteroids either hit a hot molten or liquid surface, or one that was honeycombed. The molten surface could be formed after Theia hit the Earth causing the Moon to coalesce, generating heat in the process, or caused by tidal forces when the Moon was much closer to the Earth, resulting in frictional heat and hence numerous volcanoes, or caused by numerous asteroids hitting it during the LHB, particularly from the far side. A large meteorite impact in Antarctica is thought to have generated shock waves that travelled through the Earth's mantle and crust generating the Siberian Traps. The existence of large mare on the surface suggests that large expanses of ice no longer exist below the surface, but large voids, known on Earth as pingos, could. As for the Moon's age; since the lunar surface was created during the LHB, there is no accurate way of measuring age from crater count, particularly when they are one on top of the other, or buried by lava. Also, when it comes to measuring age from radioisotope decay, no one can be sure that samples brought back to Earth by Apollo and Luna probes are from pre LHB era. My own theory is that Theia was a minor planet in a large elliptical orbit. Repeated close encounters with the Sun resulted in out gassing leaving a honeycomb structure like that of Hyperion. Theia's orbit eventually morphed into that of the Earth's, possibly accelerated by the Late Heavy Bombardment which would have buried the honeycomb structure. I know this sounds far fetched, but then again having a Moon the same relative diameter of the Sun during eclipses is also hard to believe.

That beggars the question: what did radar satellites discover? The Moon's crust is dry, therefore ideal for microwave penetration. NASA used the Arecibo and Greenbank radio telescopes in 2005 to scan the poles of the Moon in a search for water ice on the floor of perpetually shadowed craters. And of course only the near side was scanned, whilst the power would not be strong enough to detect lava tubes and pingos, holes in the ground created by melting ice. Since we don't know for certain how Theia became the Moon, it should not be assumed that all of the ice from this frozen body melted on impact during the Moon's creation. A combination of powerful radar and infra-red sensors would leave little to the imagination. Infra-red has been shown to reveal ancient dwellings in Egypt, since the mud brick walls lose heat more slowly than the surrounding sand, so on the Moon it should be able to reveal the location of voids, confirmed by radar. It is also thought that infra-red can reveal water on the lunar surface, whilst radar penetration is reduced by it. Radar data should also be an indicator of load bearing properties for future soft landing spacecraft. Whilst powerful radarsats have been sent to Venus as Magellan, and Mars as ESA Mars Express Orbiter 2003 with MARSIS, and NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter 2005 with the SHARAD (SHAllow RADar), only the NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter 2009 with mini-RF and the Japanese Kaguya (SELENE) 2007 lunar radar sounder have gone to the Moon, to search for surface ice. Years later, analysis of data from NASA's LRO revealed that there are at least 200 lava tunnels on the Moon. Some are around 45m wide x 170m deep x 80m long. However, they also need to be near the poles, with easy access, being reasonably level for large pressurized stages to be wheeled in. Temperature in these tunnels is thought to be a moderate 17C, compared to the range of 127C to -130C outside in the Sun and shade. In extended darkness temperatures drop to -232C, whilst in permanent darkness, at the poles, the temperature is -253C. There is also thought to be a large underground lake near the south pole. This implies that there are likely to be pingos, voids made by melting ice, which would no doubt be very undesirable should a rocket land on one, and topple over. None of these radars have the necessary resolution to determine near surface structure in the landing zone, which is only 0.3 km to 75m. Not to send a powerful radar satellite to the Moon before manned operations recommence in about 2025, could be construed as irresponsible, from a safety and cost effective strategic planning perspective. Such a mission would be ideal for DFD (Direct Fusion Drive) propulsion, which would generate the electricity required.

On October 26th, 2020 came news from NASA that there definately is water on the illuminated surface of the Moon, Clavius Crater to be exact. Previous announcements came with the suspicion that the hydrogen was in hydroxyl as opposed to molecular form. Just why the H2O does not split up under a 127C temperature at the equator, 8C at 75 degrees latitude, that lasts 13.5 days, causing the hydrogen to drift off into space, is as yet not determined. The nighttime temperature is -173C. Maybe it's being replenished from the interior, or from comet tails or the lunar regolith insulates the water from the Sun's rays whilst the cold interior acts as a heat sink. The lunar 'aquifer' is thought to extend across 40,000 square kilometres of the surface. I am now waiting for their risk assessment announcement, to include the aforementioned radar & infra-red satellite, plus a seismic survey and core drilling mission by remote controlled mobile geological surveyors. To see NASA's Artemis or Elon Musk's Starship topple over upon landing wouldn't look good would it? NASA is sending a rover called VIPER (Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover) to the south pole of the Moon in 2023 equipped with a metre long drill. To the western edge of Bile Crater to be exact. Since it's no bigger than a golf cart I can't see how it could possibly satisfy my concerns. An alternative solution would be to mount ground penetrating radar onto the landing vehicle, in addition to ground mapping radar used in the final decent. One could also equip landers with a jack-up device to level the spacecraft. The alternative is for an unmanned lunar vehicle to lay the necessary rebars and concrete.

ESA is sending a rover to the south pole of the Moon called Hercules in about 2025. It is designed to dock with the NASA Gateway prior to landing.

Due to the collapse of the 300m diameter Arecibo Telescope, Puerto Rico in November and December 2020, it is likely that the National Science Foundation's 100m diameter Greenbank Observatory in West Virginia will be a replacement radar transmitter operating at up to 100kW, with the National Radio Astronomy's Very Long Baseline Array at Socorro, New Mexico being the receiver, funding permitting.

Since our proto moon Theia came from the outer solar system, it would have been a frozen body, like Enceladus. It impacted with the Earth, disintegrating into billions of frozen particles. They remained frozen because the Sun had not heated up enough for sublimation to occur. They formed a neat ring around the planet and coalesced into our Moon. Heavy elements and ores descended to the core, but before the body could heat up it was hit by the LHB (Late Heavy Bombardment). Millions of meteorites hit the Moon, resulting in lava flows which created the surface and crust. The surface consists of a mishmash of lunar and meteorite rocks, solar wind and cometary particles, whilst the crust would be a more solid structure. The Sun gradually heated up over millennia, warming up the Moon. The core also got warmer. Over time the Moon boiled off most of its volatiles, whilst light flashes and clouds of gas are still seen eminating from its surface. What volatiles are evaporated by its warm core, condense when they reach the cold dark surface, forming frozen dew soaked dust, seen flashing into steam, causing the dust to shoot maybe one hundred metres above the surface as the Moon's surface rotates into the Sun's view. The vacuum of space and the lunar regolith form excellent heat insulators. Just how much ice is still retained within the Moon's interior is anybodies guess.

It would appear that the Moon is still losing mass, as it recedes about 4cm each year from Earth, mainly due to tidal forces with Earth. This loss of volatiles is possibly leaving huge voids inside the Moon. Just how big they are depends on whether Theia collided heavily with the Earth, or simply grazed it when it originally came into orbit with it. Since the Moon is thought to originate in the outer solar system, a grazing encounter would leave its ice fields relatively unscathed. It should be remembered that glacial ice on Earth is as hard as concrete. This means that as this ice boiled off, huge voids kilometres across would be created. If it was a heavy impact creating a disc of dust, rock and ice orbiting the Earth, it's likely that not all the ice would have evaporated into space, due to the quantity and also because the Sun was still getting hotter at that time. It's likely that large reserves of ice are located under the crust, especially in the polar regions. The crust will have been churned over during the LHB, leaving very little geological evidence. These voids are acting as an insulator between the solar heat at the surface and rising heat from the core. They may therefore contain considerable amounts of frozen volatiles. There maybe large deposits of nodules on the floor of these voids, just as there are nodules on the floor of the Earth's oceans. Whether they can be retrieved in the cold dark vacuum of space, remains to be seen. These voids are possibly too deep to be used for manned habitats. However, some may lie near the surface, to be accessed by constructing a deep shaft. It would be large enough for an Earth-Moon space tug to access the Luna colony located at the bottom. Protected from solar radiation, with easy access to the Moon's resources, it would be the ultimate sink hole. Since it would appear that ET (extraterrestrial) have been around for thousands of years, evidence of alien bases may exist there. To access such sites, it would be necessary to 3D print a drilling rig with a minimum 600mm diameter drill bit. Since it would take years to complete, and be highly dangerous due to possible out gassing, the mission would have to be remotely controlled, possibly employing androids. Rovers, and possibly unmanned submersibles, equipped with lidar, radar, CCTV, etc. would be sent down to explore the abyss. Such holes may exist naturally, indicated by chimney like structures, created by rising gas and dust. Since the Moon is a very dry body permitting the deep penetration of microwaves, voids maybe detected by orbiting radar satellites.

The Earth's rotation is slowing down, caused by friction between the inner and outer cores, and between the land and ocean tides. There are two tidal bulges. One bulge is adjacent to the Moon, whilst the other is 180 degrees from it, created by inertia. The lunar gravitational field also causes the Earth's surface to rise and then fall half a metre, often resulting in earthquakes. These three effects result in the Earth's rotation slowing down by an average 47 nano seconds per day. Ocean tides on Earth created by the Moon, are flung forward of the Moon by the Earth's rotation of about 1000mph. This extra gravity, forward of the Moon, causes the Moon to accelerate forward and outward. In about 400 million years time the Moon will be so far from the Earth that its stabilizing effect will dissipate, causing the Earth to wobble unpredictably on its axis. This will cause the poles and their ice caps to shift, causing the weather to swing wildly. The magnetosphere will weaken. The evolution of species will not be able to cope with this rapid environmental change, resulting in a great loss of species. In theory, as the Moon recedes, the Earth will continue to slow down until it stops altogether in about 121 billion years time, with the same side facing the Moon. The Moon will then drift towards the Earth eventually breaking up due to Earth's gravitational forces resulting in a ring of debris around the Earth. In reality the Sun will have enveloped the Earth and Moon within 5 billion years when it becomes a red giant.

There is however another factor to consider, and that is the effect the Sun has upon the Earth as it gets hotter. Increased solar radiation will increase the weathering of silicate rocks, thereby reducing the amount of carbon dioxide available for photosynthesis by land based plants and marine life. This in turn leads to less oxygen in the atmosphere, more methane and CO2, but no ozone layer. This period is known as the Great Deoxygenation. Microbial and anaerobic (free of oxygen) life forms will be the only life to survive. This will occur about one billion years from now.

This suggests that multi-cellular life may only have a period of about one billion years in which to evolve intelligent species. This does not bode well for life on red dwarf solar systems where the star's nuclear fusion will last about thirty billion years. It is also suspected that planets migrate away from their stars as the star loses its mass from nuclear fusion. This implies that a planet formed too close to a red dwarf, maybe viewed by SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) in the habitable zone billions of years later, with astronomers not realizing that it has always been dead. Over eons, other exoplanets would slow down their rate of rotation and become deserts. This implies that in addition to mechanical, electrical, software, systems, planetary construction, terraform, telecoms, navigators, geologists and medical personnel, there is also a need for archaeologists to be incorporated into manned interstellar missions, to tease out technologies from extinct civilisations. Technicians such as geologists, would require duel skills, such as in paleontology, meteorology, etc. Technicians would also have to train in new skills during the voyage and upon arrival, since many dangers will await them. Poisonous insects and reptiles, the ability to predict repeated quakes and tsunamis, lightning and solar flares, hostile primitive natives, etc. Let us not forget that the main reason the Vikings abandoned north America was due to tribal conflict. Quantum or x-ray communications would also be an absolute necessity for all interstellar missions.

The Moon must not only be the right size, but it must also survive the initial impact with the Earth, otherwise it becomes a ring of debris.

Recent research by NASA has also indicated that a body as large as Theia would have totally disintegrated when it collided with the Earth had it not impacted at a 'safe' specific angle. The chances of this happening elsewhere in our galaxy are very remote.

n7 = 0.1 This exoplanet must have sufficient volatiles created in deep seas harbouring black smokers. Deep oceans on Earth are thought to have been created during the late heavy bombardment (4.1 to 3.86 billion years ago). If there was no LHB, then Earth sized planets probably would not have enough elements to create life, nor an advanced civilisation, since all the heavy elements that created the planet would have sunk to the core, leaving only an element's ores, lighter than its mantle, on or near the surface, in the crust. Also, prior to LHB, the planet's lighter elements would probably have been blown into space by the companion star's unstable and violent beginnings. Analysis of xenon gas eminating from comet 67P, and observed by ESA's Rosetta/Philae space probes, suggests that the Earth was hit by about one hundred thousand comets during its life. A descending tectonic plate undergoes a phase change at 40km depth allowing it to sink to the core on Earth. Sinking plates with a magnesium to silicon ration 40% less than Earth, will not reach the core, effectively shutting down the plate tectonic process. This would stop the recycling of CO2, which controls our atmosphere's temperature.

Water is also thought to have been transported to Earth by the proto-moon, Theia. Its impact with Earth is likely to have contributed greatly to that from the LHB. If the mass of a planet is not great enough then volatiles like water will drift off into space, leaving a trace of atomic hydrogen in the atmosphere. The planet's temperature is also important. The Earth's atmospheric temperature enables H2O to exist in all three phases, steam, water and ice. Earth is located at the triple point on the diagram. Mars would be located below the triple point at about -50C.

n8 = 0.1 Land masses must be sufficiently large to accommodate mountain ranges and their associated micro-climates, leading to biodiversity. It is likely that the primordial landmass of Pangaea and the deep Pacific basin were created by the impact of a proto-planet that eventually became the Moon. Otherwise all you get are isolated volcanic islands, usually at the heart of hexagon shaped thermal zones created within the mantle. This world would have no major rivers and no shallow seas. Oxygen in the seas and atmosphere on Earth was created by cyanobacteria in the form of stromatolites, growing in shallow sun lit waters from 3.5 billion years ago. This process was later enhanced by algae. Evidence suggests that multi-cellular life could not have evolved without oxygen in the world's oceans.

n9 = 0.5 Meteorites have been found that contain carbon and amino acids, the building blocks of life. This beggars the question, did primordial life come from asteroids/comets, undersea black smokers (hydrothermal vents), or both? Bacteria or some lower form of life by abiogenesis? The creation of life from inanimate substances. Biochemistry from geochemistry. Geochemistry involves the interaction of cyanide with carbon dioxide to produce carbon based compounds, where cyanide is carbon plus hydrogen. Meteorites have been found with iron, cyanide and carbon monoxide to produce ironcyano-carbonyl complex. Another geochemistry process towards life is that of carbon dioxide and water to produce tricarboxylic acid. The fact that bacteria exist deep underground and as extremophiles suggests that at least some came from large comets with radioactive cores, capable of triggering genetic mutations. In 2023, Rutgers University announced the discovery of an ancient metabolic enzyme consisting of 13 amino acids plus two nickel atoms. This peptide molecule was highly reactive in sea water, which at the time, 3.5 to 3.8 billion years ago, had a noticeable nickel content. It's likely that all these prebiotic events contributed towards the foundation of biochemistry, which beggars the question, how common is it? The earliest known life on this planet were stromatolites, their microbial remains were found at the Dresser formation, Pilbara Range, Western Australia in 2019. They are 3.5 billion years old. This suggests that life can start immediately environmental conditions on the exoplanet allow. This assumes that elements and the building blocks of life are evenly distributed across most of our galaxy.

Analysis of data gathered by the ESA Rosetta space probe to the comet 67P, which released the Philae lander to its surface, indicates that sixteen organic molecules were detected as the lander bounced at least three time s on the surface. All the building blocks of life were present, including lipids, proteins, sugars and nucleic acids, for the production of cells. These building blocks were formed over billions of years in nebulae heated by primordial stars. Fifty per cent of this comet is thought to consist of organic compounds. A sample return mission called CAESAR has been proposed. In addition, organic molecules were detected by ALMA (Atacama Large Millimeter Array) in the NWC480 solar system. Such a discovery indicates that the building blocks for life exist across large swathes of our galaxy.

n10 = 0.1 Complex multi-cellular life has only developed in six eukaryotic groups on this planet during the last 635 million years ago, after 3 billion years of development, called the age of bacteria. Those groups are animals (800mya), fungi (1000mya), land plants (500mya), red algae (1600mya), green algae (1000mya) and brown algae (400mya). There have been no new groups in the last 200 million years. The oldest evidence for multi-cellular life comes from a fossil, one billion years old, having two distinct cell types, found in 2021 at Loch Torridon, Wester Ross, Scotland, by the University of Sheffield and Boston College, USA. It's hard to believe that it was through pure chance, from a sea of microbial mat, rather like the Sargasso sea today, or at a black smoker or steamy pool in a world of continuous volcanism, high radiation and tumultuous tidal seas created by an intimate Moon, that billions of RNA, then DNA, could produce multi-cellular life, such as sponges. As yet we still do not know whether microbial life found within the guts of these bodies also played a part, and the same goes for hitch hikers on the surface of nucleic acid itself. Multi-cellular life may also have been kick started by ice ages. Providing all the above parameters are satisfied, multi-cellular life is inevitable, since science dictates that elements, compounds, lipids, sugars and proteins will link together electrically to form nucleic acids. The largest bacterium, thiomargarita namibiensis, can be seen with the human eye being up to 0.75mm in length. In the age of bacteria and viruses these organisms were no doubt larger as well as more numerous, since there were fewer or no predators.

Such a body would have an oxygen atmosphere, with clouds indicating water. Since the alien solar system could have formed earlier than ours, its life maybe far more advanced. However, even if it's one billion years more advanced, it's still a long shot. This is because advanced alien civilisations probably advance like ours, randomly. As I write this, the human race is on the verge of a pandemic. Preliminary estimates suggest that one hundred and sixty million people will probably die. Possibly far more than that if third world countries descend into chaos. To prevent a deliberate pandemic, caused by an act of terrorism, would require the existence of a world technocracy. It is highly likely that civilisations on exoplanets would not have such an organisation to protect them, anymore than we do. They would therefore, ultimately become extinct. This implies that highly intelligent civilisations would have a very short time span. From a SETI point of view, negligible, since industrial pollutants in the exoplanets atmosphere, such as CFCs, would only be detected for a few thousand years. So, if the human race is to survive any length of time, it must never produce hazardous materials such as dark matter, anti-matter, and doomsday viruses. To remove this threat, whilst still working on the technology, it would be best to isolate the danger to a laboratory on the Moon. And to do that, you first need a WT, don't you?

In answer to the Enrico Fermi paradox, "Where are they?" I have concluded that there are many alien colonies already here. Their home planets have become uninhabitable, or they are simply no longer welcome there. Like most refugees, they want to be left alone and in peace. As our technology advances, it is inevitable that the location of these colonies will end up in the public domain. What happens then?

In my view SETI is a complete waste of time and money, since ETs are unlikely to use wireless communication, since their spacecraft travel faster than light, faster than radio waves. In addition, interstellar missions have to be kept as short as possible, possibly no more than one week, as the faster you travel, the greater time passes on your planet of origin. In other words, scientists and technicians want to be around when their pet project returns, and told face to face what was discovered. So why would they use a slower means of transferring information? However, they might use it as a distress beacon. Finance destined for SETI should be redirected towards building massive infrared telescope arrays at the poles of the Moon, and radio telescopes strung across craters on the far side. Current astronomical satellites have a short range compared to the size of the Milky Way. Their design is based upon the assumption that Earth type planets are common, and therefore nearby. That assumption is wrong.

Of course, if it was not for the fundamental forces of nature being what they are, our universe would be very different, making it likely that life would not evolve. The four forces that govern our existence are gravity where energy acts on space time, weak force responsible for radioactive decay, the strong nuclear force which holds together atoms, and electromagnetism in the form of charge between electrons and protons.

Recent research shows that in comet impacts the radiation generated breaks chemical bonds to create amino acids. Amino acids, the building blocks of life, are also created as comets pass close to a star, interacting with its ammonia or hydrogen cyanide. In the 12 billion year age of our galaxy, that can be one heck of a lot of amino acid, not to mention organic compounds such as methane, ethane and acetylene. Likely locations within our solar system for extremophiles, hardy bacteria, would be the oceans and surface of Enceladus, Europa, Ganymede, the lava tubes and numerous underground lakes on Mars, plus the Moon and the atmosphere of Venus at about 50km altitude, and possibly the poles of Mercury and our Moon. In September 2019 NASA announced that the surface of Venus was habitable until about seven hundred million years ago, but this was disputed in October 2021 in a report on space.com implying that Venus never cooled down. Global warming makes Venus the hottest planet in our solar system. If it was not for global warming most of the Earth's atmosphere at sea level would be at around -18C.

In September 2020 it was announced that biosignatures of life had been detected within the atmosphere of Venus by teams based at the University of Manchester, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and led by Professor Jane Greaves Cardiff University. The research initially carried out by James Clerk Maxwell telescope, Hawaii, and confirmed by the ALMA (Atacama Large Millimeter Array) radio telescope array in Chile shows the molecule phosphine (PH3)at an altitude of 32 to 37 miles within the equatorial zone, but absent in polar regions. The amount, twenty parts per million, is one thousand times greater than that found on Earth. Lab tests at MIT indicate that other non-biological means of production would only produce one ten thousandth of that detected by these telescopes. Phosphine is produced in the pooh of penguins, released from marsh land and was used as a gas weapon in world war one. It can only be retained in the atmosphere for just a few hours, meaning that this phosphine is being produced either by an extremophile or some unknown chemical process. Since the atmosphere of Venus consists of highly concentrated sulphuric acid rain, it does beggar the question, 'how on Venus could it survive?' Some organisms have protective shells, but in which case how could it nourish itself and reproduce? It may just be bacteria. Will HMG finance a space probe to skim the atmosphere, release floating labs and examine samples by remote analysis. It maybe too dangerous to bring them back to Earth. Of course with Covid-19 the UK like most of the rest of the world, is doubly bankrupt, making such a mission unlikely. Don't you think it's about time we adopted the political and economic changes detailed on this website in order to make such a proposal possible?

One way to find out whether bacteria came from space would be to send unmanned missions to the satellites of Jupiter, namely Europa or Ganymede, or Saturn's satellite Enceladus, all of which are thought to have seas under a thick layer of ice. Some meteorites have a radioactive core. This structure is likely to exist within large comets like Hale-Bopp which has a nucleus diameter of 60 kilometres and visited us in 1995. When they get close to the Sun the heavy elements gather at the centre, as the comet melts under an icy surface. It then refreezes. Successive encounters with the Sun cause the volatiles to evaporate into space, sometimes leaving an asteroid. These radioactive comets could presumably create genetic mutations. The three main Jovian satellites Europa, Ganymede and Callisto receive their radiation from Jupiter. Currently no space agency is prepared to take up the challenge of sending a nuclear submarine to these bodies which could melt through the icy crust, explore the depths, melt its way to the surface, or via a geyser, and relay the data back to Earth via a ground station or relay satellite. The icy crust of Enceladus is 10 to 15 miles thick, whilst that of Ganymede is estimated to be 60 to 90 miles, which is pretty challenging for a probe to melt through twice, delivery and return. However, NASA have proposed to send a flyby mission to Enceladus which would analyse the organic plumes coming off it. The Cassini fly-by detected catalytic decompositions of hydrocarbons coming from Enceladus' geysers. These can only form at a temperature of around 1430°C, which dramatically improves the chances of finding pre-biotic life, or even microbial life, assuming the conditions on this satellite have existed for long enough. Examining the E ring for signs of life would be far easier than sending a nuclear submarine to such extreme depths, inside the moon.

Proof of panspermia may or may not lie in the genome of the octopus. Its DNA was studied and a report presented in Nature publication in 2015 titled 'The octopus genome and the evolution of cephalopod neural and morphological novelties.' This was followed up by another paper published in 2018 in Progress in Biophysics and Molecular Biology titled 'Cause of Cambrian Explosion Terrestrial or Cosmic?' This hypothesized that the octopus (cephalopods), or its eggs, arrived on Earth 270 million years ago inside a comet. In addition to eight tentacles, distributed brain and telescopic eyes, amongst its 2.7 billion DNA base pairs, it has 33,000 protein-coding genes. Human beings have 25,000. To explain these unique genes some scientists say that they arise from junk DNA, a process known as de novo. However that doesn't explain where the junk came from originally. In addition, unlike intelligent elephant, chimpanzee, dolphin and humans, it has no known ancestors until now. Cephalopods, including squid and cuttlefish, are marine mammals that broke from their ancestors 100 to 160 million years ago. Bristol University discovered that they evolved from ammonites and belemnites, but unlike them they have no skeleton or body armour, meaning that their fossils are very rare, and hence their evolution has been difficult to fathom out. So are they aliens? Latest research shows that some cephalopods edit their RNA on a regular basis, and are as far as we know, the only species that can do it, whilst one can even use a camera. mmmm Now suppose an octopus used its RNA editing ability to create a highly intelligent bipedal humanoid type species with revolting tentacles emerging from its oriphases. Would the human race tolerate it as a competing species on this planet? Seriously though, the common ancestor of humans and octopus is thought to be a flatworm some 600 million years ago.

Proof of panspermia, at least in theory, comes from the meteorite AH84001. Found in the Allan Hills of Antarctica in 1984, it is believed to be one of only about thirty meteorites that originate from the planet Mars. It is four billion years old and is thought to have been ejected into space from the planet about seventeen million years ago, when a comet hit the surface. It is thought to have landed in Antarctica about thirteen thousand years ago. It is debatable as to whether lineages seen on its surface through an electron microscope are proof of alien life.

Four billion years ago, when the Earth's atmosphere consisted of methane, ammonia and hydrogen sulphide, micro organisms called mothanagyns, used light to produce arsenic. 2.7 billion years ago bacteria started to produce oxygen. Are these processes taking place on other planets and moons in our solar system? Astro biologists are scouring the surface of planet Earth, in the hope of finding extremophiles that could exist elsewhere in our solar system. Finding them would enable engineers to design diagnostic equipment to install on space probes. There are numerous sites presently being studied. The hot springs of Mono Lake, California and Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA, whilst underground in Spider Cave, New Mexico red bacteria is studied eating rocks. Bacteria, algae and predatory ice worms are being studied in the ice cave in Blackcomb glacier near the town of Whistler, British Columbia, Canada. The permafrost in Fox Tunnel, Alaska, is studied, where ultra-violet light has been used to illuminate pigments in bacteria. This method could be employed by orbiting space probes with UV lasers, to detect life on the surface of a moon. The study of UV light on glaciers, and salt water lakes in Kenya, and pitch lakes in Venezuela, questions whether it is possible to produce the energy for life, such as hydrogen peroxide. In the laboratory, it has been shown that subjecting the gases methane and nitrogen to electric arcs, to simulate charged particles from Saturn on Titan, for five days, will produce thirty organic molecules. Add water to this, and you produce biological molecules. Plans are afoot to send a submarine to Titan. Whether the viscosity of the lakes of Titan would enable a submarine to propel itself, remains to be seen. I know of no images showing waves on these lakes. It could be just ghoo. An aerial vehicle called dragonfly is also in development. Designed to fly from one site to another, assuming it doesn't get stuck to the surface. Current plans in 2021 call for it to be launched in 2027. It will have a helicopter, plus the capability to return samples to Earth by using Titan's methane atmosphere to produce rocket fuel. Titan is thought to have an abundance of tholins, simple compounds created with ultra-violet light, which form amino acids when water is added to them.

In 2014 scientists found seventeen different species of microbe at Blood Falls, Antarctica. They developed them on a mineral diet of sulphates and iron, without sunlight and oxygen. Antarctica also experiences blooms of green snow algae brought on by global warming, which can be seen from space. Whilst in 1818, blood ice microbial algae was also found at Cape York, Greenland. The microbial algae turned from green to red under the influence of ultraviolet light from the Sun. Today, half of Greenland's glaciers are covered by this stuff. Its sunlight absorbing ability, which accelerates ice cap melting, poses a threat to Earth through global warming and its associated sea level rise. So life on moons in the outer solar system is not too improbable to contemplate. Ganymede has a magnetic field, which in addition to a 150km thick ice cap, could protect life there from Jupiter's radiation. Because its aurora only tilts two degrees instead of the expected six, due to magnetic induction, scientists have concluded that Ganymede is composed of an 800km deep sea incorporating four layers of ice. This does not bode well for finding life however, since most life in Earth's seas is at a depth of no more than 120 metres, known as the euphotic zone. Sunlight is unlikely to penetrate even to the surface of this sea, due to its distance from the Sun and thickness of the surface ice. To reach the ocean floor on Ganymede, where the black smokers would be, is plainly suicidal using conventional materials. This problem can be overcome by using a carbon matrix, produced atom by atom.

Because the moon is smaller and mainly liquid, a submarine could get much closer to its outer core, to take numerous measurements, possibly employing top secret technology used in submarine warfare. This assumes that the submarine would not only withstand the pressure, but also progress through at least three layers of thick ice, produced by the phases of ice, to get to this relatively close location. Such research may lead to understanding the origins of plasma balls. Are they exotic life? Living plasma? Are they produced by a chemical-electro process in the outer core? Attracted to bright lights and nuclear reactors on Earth, would a nuclear submarine prove a great attraction to them? Is their breeding process based upon that of a nuclear reactor, but composed of sub-atomic particles? Can they think? What is their mental capability? Is their brain distributed like that of an octopus? Can they be trained to build and maintain the propulsive system of a flying saucer? What is 'life' like in the outer core? Are there more species down there? What does the outer core look like? Since plasma balls are attracted to light, then presumably there is illumination down there, from lightning or chemical reactions? This implies that there are voids containing transparent liquids or gases. Would it be possible therefore to attract and corral these plasma balls, and use them to power Earth and space based vehicles, maintaining the power by topping up the energy levels intermittently? This may sound far fetched but then so is the description of an octopus. This project has been proposed by me in the alien UFO section:

Research in Hessdalen, Norway appears to suggest that plasma balls have a similar make-up to that of the Sun. In other words they are made up of hydrogen and helium nuclei. Once in the Earth's atmosphere they move around fast and erratically, searching for free electrons. It is a natural process which reduces its energy level to that of its surroundings, ultimately fizzling out. Free electrons can be found in the vicinity of electro-magnets in electric motors and generators, which are themselves found in road, rail, air and sea going vehicles. This is why plasma balls are seen near power stations and nuclear reactors. They are also attracted to electric lights which emit photons and electrons. This is why they appear to follow cars, etc. UFOs appear to extract this energy from a distance. They also group together forming swirling patterns, probably caused by the clouds of electrons that they attract. They may also form different shapes, dictated by their atomic structure, such as that of a tic-tac, depending upon what elements they interact with during their creation and elevation to the surface. Whether there is a practical use for this phenomenon remains to be seen.

Plasma balls maybe produced by chemical means, as at Hessdalen, or be emitted from the Sun, produced by the interaction of the Earth's magnet field lines with those of the Sun, originate from high altitude lightning called sprites, piezo electric effect during earthquakes or volcanic activity, or originate from the Earth's outer core. They could also be remotely operated vehicles or scouts from UFO (UAPs). It maybe possible to tap into its source from the Earth's core, entrap them within a space vehicle and through interaction with the Sun's dark energy component of its heliosphere, propel the space craft beyond interstellar escape velocity towards neighbouring stars.

This project would probably require a cluster of space probes, along with substantial financial resources and time. But then what have we to loose but the reputation of several politicians and scientists. Maybe we should call it Project Test & Trace, because that's how much it's likely to cost. Thereby ensuring that no politician could ever say that we can't afford it. This project would require an orbiting DFD powered radarsat to detect weak points in the ice crust and relay data between the surface rover and Earth. Its Direct Fusion Drive would power the radar and surface rover by microwaves, as proposed for the mission to Pluto. The nuclear powered submarine would melt through the crust trailing a cable behind it ending in a transponder. The submarine would position sensors on the ocean floor. There would probably be three rover/submarines in order to obtain data in 3D. Once enough data is gathered, the submarine would relay the data to the rover via the transponder. Should the exploration phase be successful, a sample phase would begin, possibly followed by a production phase, where the plasma balls are harvested.

Ganymede will be orbited by ESA's JUICE probe in 2030, after launch in 2022. Its powerful radar will penetrate the surface ice to a depth of about ten kilometres, hopefully detecting the ice/water boundary. It is supported by NASA / JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and Japan. NASA intends to launch the Europa Clipper mission in 2025, which will go into orbit around Jupiter to determine whether any of its moons could harbour life, especially Europa. NASA also intends to send the Psyche space probe to a nickel iron asteroid between Mars and Jupiter in October 2023. Psyche is believed to be the spent core of a minor planet. If so, examination of it may shed light on the environment that lies at the core of Earth, Ganymede and similar bodies. The abundance of heavy metals also makes it a key target for mining in space. The UK and Japan based company Asteroid Mining Corporation, is developing technology in this area.

To withstand such high pressures in my proposed mission the hull of the submarine would be built from a carbon matrix, possibly 300 to 600 times stronger than steel. For details, see web page links at the end of this chapter. The mole would be tested on Earth in areas of geothermal activity, thermal springs, geysers, volcanoes and super volcanoes. It could therefore reveal an abundance of science data long before it was launched into space. These cold plasma balls on Earth, could be the source of sprites and elves in the upper atmosphere. Does Ganymede have sprites and elves? If I am correct about the source of plasma balls (cold fusion), it may well explain why many alien civilisations have never entered interstellar space, simply because such a source is not available to them. To ignore this possibility, is therefore not an option.

Researchers at University College Santa Barbara (UCSB) & Georgia Institute of Technology have developed an artificial snake that can tunnel underground. It's robots like this that are needed to access the depths of Ganymede. Nobody ever said that enabling propulsive systems for interstellar vehicles would be within easy grasp. This project, lasting decades, would have to be on an international basis, because it will require great ingenuity to succeed. The economic benefits are also potentially extreme. As with the ISS it would increase global cooperation and understanding.

Were primordial life to be discovered on Earth, it is likely to be unrecognizable from life today. Unfortunately primordial life on Earth will have long gone, wiped out by its descendants, or by volcanic and tectonic plate activity. The odds of primordial life being sealed in by an oxygen free layer for over half a billion years is very slim. Only the Black Sea, Dead Sea, Death Valley and blue holes of the Bahamas spring to mind, but they are all recent compared to the age of multi-cellular life. As I write, 10 metre high black smokers (hydrothermal vents) are discovered at 5,000m depth in the Cayman Trough between the Cayman Islands and Jamaica by the University Of Southampton and the UK's National Oceanography Centre, Plymouth. They are not the tallest, since a 60 metre high vent called Lost City has been found at Atlantis Massif in the Atlantic Ocean, at a depth of 900m, that creates hydrocarbons spontaneously, whilst water has been found at a depth of 2.4km at Timmins, Ontario, Canada and found to be 1.5 billion years old. The search for primordial life by astrobiologists continues. They may well find it, not on Earth but on the Moon. Asteroid impacts and super volcanic eruptions may deposit evidence at the lunar poles. Deposits from the KT event (66mya) and even primordial life may be present there too.

If one looks at the outer planets and large satellites in our solar system, and place them in the habitable zone, then most of them would become water worlds. Only the Earth and Mars have water, the latter in the form of ice, much of it underground. The surface of Mars is 2% water. The water migrated deeper within the planet, as the core cooled, which also resulted in the collapse of the planet's magnetosphere, resulting in the solar wind bombarding water molecules, causing them to drift off into space, the evidence for which is atomic hydrogen detected in the remaining atmosphere. In the 7000 metre deep Eridania basin it is thought that the top 400m consists of extinct geothermal deposits, at least 3 billion years old. In primordial times whilst Mars had a sea, it was too small to have ocean currents that would convey heat around the planet. Except for periods of volcanic activity, which influenced the atmosphere, it is likely that the seas of Mars remained frozen. Steps along seashores appear to prove that these seas were frozen. Some scientists feel that Mars was like Earth 3.9 to 2.5 billion years ago, but I do not see evidence for that. Evidence of water erosion appears to have been caused by glacial action, and the breaching of ice dams and meteorite impacts causing flash floods, which is one reason why it stayed lifeless. The Earth was heated up by life, but Mars had no such opportunity. Whilst NASA's Perseverance rover has detected the elements of life, namely CHNOPS (carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulphur), the necessary environment for life is lacking.

Water is rare in the inner solar system because in primordial times it existed primarily only in frozen form in and beyond the asteroid belt. It is unlikely therefore that water worlds exist. Any that do would only have marine life, including flying fish. Animals living there would overcome extreme gravity, being supported by buoyancy. Water would act as a radiation shield, where Earth sized satellites orbited large planets like Saturn, in the habitable zone. Such high radiation environments could accelerate DNA pairing and evolution in general. Such water worlds found in inner solar systems are likely to be very large captured comets. However, should the oceans be one kilometre or greater in depth, frozen water in the form of clathrates would insulate submerged land surfaces from the sea and therefore prevent the carbon silicate cycle, thereby preventing advanced life developing. The seas maybe too deep for volcanoes to reach the surface and its atmosphere, whilst radiation may limit life to that of 2mm long water bears (tardigrades), and their offshoots. These creatures have the ability to regenerate their genome in a radiation environment.

The more elements that are found in a star, the older the star is. (In the case of rare massive second generation stars, these contain few elements.) This is important to know because stars have a violent early phase, emiting intense radiation. The star and its planets are formed from a planetary disc during the first ten million years. During this time planets have a habit of migrating inwards. Whilst inner planets forming close to the Sun have no water, that is not the case for all inner planets, many of which form in the icy cold outer solar system and migrate inwards, sometimes behind a hot Jupiter, during which time the ice turns to water and gas. Planets whose orbits are in resonance are also likely to have migrated from further out. So these minor planets in the inner solar system should not be written off immediately they are discovered.

It is more likely that astronomers will find planets with life, having close eccentric orbits around their stars, than seeing a large satellite like the Moon orbiting an Earth sized exoplanet. Both configurations create the tidal forces necessary for the emergence of life. It is also thought that a plant with no UV protection and carbon cycle, can evolve life with a slower metabolism, such as that of fungi. Fungi came into being on Earth about 1.43 mya (million years ago) in the sea. They came onto the land before plants and are more closely related to animals than plants. There are up to 5 million species on planet Earth. Before a full range of fungi developed, dead matter was compacted into the ground, trees forming coal, whilst crustaceans formed crude oil when submitted to intense pressure and heat over millions of years.

The answer to the above formulae is 2,000 solar systems having an Earth type planet with the conditions for multi-cellular life. Playing with these parameters one is forced to come to the conclusion that the answer is likely to be an even lower number, possibly a single digit. I have assumed that the chances of an intelligent species surviving a considerable length of time to be one in a hundred, namely 20. However, the resilience of nature and intelligent species may have been underestimated. Grey aliens are reputed to have large eyes due to their dim companion star emitting little illumination. However, they have adjusted to their surroundings. Termites have also adjusted to theirs here on Earth. For their size they have huge structures both above and below ground, and can control their atmosphere. This implies that many civilisations elsewhere in our galaxy have over millions of years gone underground. They are living much like the opal miners at Coober Pedy in Southern Australia, whose underground homes remain at 23C all year around, in an otherwise hostile desert environment. To detect such civilisations using telescopes would be impossible. We would have to send out at least one hundred interstellar voyagers. In a capitalist world that would be prohibitively expensive. And if an alien civilisation was discovered, and it was based solely upon science, with no arts and sports, what could we trade with? Glass beads and iron nails may have satisfied primitive tribes that explorers met in the past, but that won't satisfy aliens whose technology we want to barter with. We could offer them a decent planet to live on.

It is also abundantly clear that an Earth sized planet in a habitable zone is not an Earth type planet unless it is accompanied by a very large satellite, etc. Neither Mercury, Venus nor Mars have continental drift, and hence no potential life giving black smokers, because they have no substantial satellite orbiting them. Phobos and Demos orbiting Mars are simply small captured asteroids. Also, it should be remembered that planet Earth would have an average temperature of -18°C were it not for its greenhouse gas CO2 (carbon dioxide). Plate tectonics and the carbon dioxide from volcanoes that it creates, ensures that the Earth won't be that cold again ever, since as the Earth cools down the Sun will heat up. Highly reflective clouds would however reduce atmospheric temperature. To make matters more complicated, the role of nitrogen should not be ignored. A planet having an abundance of nitrogen can increase the atmospheric temperature, which increases the effectiveness of existing carbon dioxide and water vapour as greenhouse gases. Also, in the case of a dry planet, nitrogen can lead to dramatic cooling by reflecting light from its companion star. Since nitrogen is a noble gas, it cannot be detected, since it doesn't absorb nor emit radiation in the visible nor infrared wavelengths. This makes determining whether an exoplanet is Earth like, almost impossible.

This formulae makes no reference to the evolution of our galaxy, nor the average duration of life on a planet, intelligent civilisation's or not. Most of the values for these parameters are guesstimate since there is insufficient data from astronomical observations. Doubtless there are also factors which I have not considered, particularly relating to the creation of life itself. The phosphorus cycle for instance. Phosphorus is transported mainly by tectonics over geologic time. It can also be transported by wind, such as from the Sahara Desert to the Bahamas. However, on a planet with no land, there would be no soil erosion, and therefore no phosphorus for sea plants to take up, and hence no life. Also, the elemental make-up of the planet, essential for promoting life, has hardly been mentioned although it is more likely to be based upon carbon than silicon. No mention is made of alien beings seeding planets in other solar systems, or that life is so resilient that it can withstand millennia travelling through the vacuum, intense cold, and cosmic radiation of space, known as panspermia.

Living bacteria have been found in nuclear reactors, and on space stations, whilst micro-organisms have been recovered from the guts of insects trapped in amber millions of years ago, and revived. Ethyl alcohol was detected eminating from the comet Lovejoy, presumably produced by fermenting bacteria living off sugars. This provides evidence that comets have been a source of complex organic molecules necessary for life to form. Whilst scientific results from balloon flights by ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation) imply that micro-organisms from space are falling to Earth at the rate of at least 20 million biological cells per square metre per day. Another odd fact about life on Earth comes from the evolution of the octopus. It branched off from the squid 400 mya, and yet its DNA is vastly more advanced, having 40,000 genes, compared to humans having 25,000. Its genes cover brain and camouflage function, but where did the squid get this ability from? This remains an enigma.

There is also the problem of differentiating basic compounds from advanced molecules produced by biological processes. This requires the determination of molecular complexity by mass spectrometry, mounted on a rover traversing an exoplanet or through astronomy. Raw data is then subjected to a measure of molecular complexity, called the molecular assembly index (MA). Complexity far greater than that achieved by geological processes is therefore life.

Life on Earth is based upon sunlight and associated photosynthesis, including stromatolites that for billions of years created our oxygen based atmosphere. Were Earth's atmosphere to be opaque, then photosynthesis could not take place. This would be common in atmospheres containing carbon. Even giant tube worms found at black smokers need oxygen generated near sea level to sustain the symbiotic relationship they have with bacteria, in order to obtain nutrients for growth. However, there may be life out there that exists beneath kilometres of ice that converts infra-red energy from alien black smokers and their surrounding hot water, into biological energy as a basis for life. The difference in ph between vent water and sea water, also provides the emf (electro-motive force) to build bio-molecular chains. In other words, alkalines and acids create the energy necessary to form complex organic compounds out of hydrogen and carbon dioxide. Hydrogen peroxide is also thought to be a source for energy in such environments, and as previously mentioned sulphates and iron (at Blood Falls).

It's my bet that life does exist on the red planet but it's very primitive. It may prove to be a precursor to bacteria, based upon RNA, whilst the intermittent seasonal flow of methane, detected by satellites, possibly suggests a more advanced biological source, caused by the melting of ice and detritus, the remains of Mars' primordial soup, or tell tale remnants of biological artefacts from a comet. In which case it will help scientists discover how life evolved upon Earth. The truth is definitely out there, but I cannot help thinking that it is more easily found amongst this text.

n11 refers to the longevity of civilisation. Civilisation can be inferred through the detection of atmospheric pollution. However, civilisation cannot get started without a minimum amount of oxygen in the atmosphere, because without that there can be no fire, no blast furnaces to smelt metal, and hence no industrial revolution. Oxygen in the Earth's atmosphere has fluctuated over eons. The present level of oxygen in our atmosphere is 20.95%. The minimum level was of course zero, when our primordial atmosphere was mainly methane. In the precambrian period it was only 10% of what it is today. The highest level it has been was 35% about 300 million years ago during the carboniferous period, which promoted large creatures. The minimum level of oxygen to support fire is 16%, whilst a value of 35% will cause continuous burning.

Can intelligent life evolve successfully on exoplanets? The difference between the human genome and that of other species on Earth is no more than about 3%. That suggests that something similar to the human genome can be created elsewhere in our galaxy, but when one looks at the parts that make up a human cell, it is mind bogglingly complex, making one wonder whether it was an act of God or aliens. The fact is that humans were making good stone tools 2.6 million years ago, which makes one wonder what were they doing since then and say 3200 BCE?

The human race has a moderate rate of cognition. Some extraterrestrials are believed to have wiped themselves out because they have a far higher rate of thought. Hopefully the implantation of AI chips into the human brain will not speed up human action without it first realising the consequences. However, humans are wiping out species on this planet at the rate of about one thousand per year, and humans beings at a far higher rate. It's obvious that if this mentality persists, the human race will become extinct in the not too distant future. My answer to this quest, is twenty advanced civilisations, whilst some say it is a little over forty. I wish I could sound more positive.

The following is a paper written in 2013-02-15.

This project is designed to determine the type, magnitude and frequency of solar and cosmic radiation levels, Miyake events, asteroid and also comet encounters with Earth, where evidence for such events on this planet, has been erased over time by geological activity.

As I write to you, reports are coming in from the Urals Mountain region of Russia of an exploding ten tonne asteroid that has blown out thousands of windows causing injury to about 1,200 Russian people. It just missed Rosatom's Mayak atomic waste plant at Chelyabinsk as it descended to the west. As far as I can tell no one predicted this event, with the eyes of astronomers distracted by the presence of a 45 metre asteroid 2012 DA 14 crossing the orbit of geosynchronous satellites at an altitude of 27,700km. Whilst there are a few astronomers watching out for and cataloguing the 9,000 near Earth asteroids, I cannot help thinking that the real threat from space is being ignored.

In the March 2013 edition of Spaceflight it mentions NASA's Aitken Basin Sample (geological) Return mission. I understand that ESA is considering a rover mission to the South Pole of the Moon also, but do they really know why they should be going there? What I am about to propose is a billion dollar/euro mission, to bring back to Earth intact core samples.

Apocalyptic events have happened in the past and only recently have their causes become apparent by studying ice cores and tree rings. Such recent events are as follows:

2354 BCE 9 years of rain caused by Hekla 4 volcanic eruption on Iceland.

1628 BCE Thera/Santorini volcanic eruption. Minoan & Xia dynasties end.

1159 BCE 18 years of rain caused by Hekla3 eruption on Iceland.

660 BCE Miyake event

208 BCE Possibly caused by Icelandic volcanic eruption.

44 BCE 3 plus years of famine in Egypt caused by major volcanic eruption, possibly in central America. This assisted in bringing down the reign of Pharaoh Cleopatra in 30BCE, the turbulent sky being described during the assassination of military general Julius Caesar.

365 CE Antikythera earthquake, Greece. Wiped out Roman cities, including those along African coast.

536 CE Lake Ilopango supervolcano erupts. 30 years of rain, Justinian plague, dark ages begin. Takes Maya civilisation 100 years to recover.

993 CE & 774 CE Miyake events

There are hundreds of volcanoes on planet Earth, plus about fifty supervolcano sites. It is inevitable that other global events in the past have been caused by other factors such as close encounters with comets and impacts by large meteorites. Whilst nothing can be done to prevent such events, they can be monitored, and by studying past events an accurate risk assessment can be compiled.

Little is known about the cause, duration and effect of Miyake events. They are believed to have emanated from the Sun in the form of a series of solar flares just minutes apart. They are at least twenty times normal background radiation. Their effect has been noticed in tree rings going back as far as 5259 BCE, 5410 BCE and 7176 BCE. The Carrington event of 1859 was a very weak Miyake event. This caused telegraph poles to catch fire. Based upon present non-existent preventative measures, such a event would wipe out civilisation if it was prolonged enough. Miyake events can last for more than one year, during which there would probably be no electronic and electrical systems working. Hence no transportation, no fertilizers and no food, other than what you can grow and guard yourself. With no horses, no whale oil and no steam powered machinery, the option of adopting a pre-electrical Victorian lifestyle would not exist.

Such events by comets are of course global, even orbital. A close encounter with the tail of a comet could easily bring all Earth orbiting satellites crashing to the ground. The loss of military satellites including GPS would represent a huge risk to world peace. Some missiles would not posses sufficient energy to reach their designated targets. Orbiting dust and ice would drastically reduce photosynthesis and hence agricultural output. Earth under a 'power shower' lasting decades would see its top soil washed away, polluting the world's oceans, thereby reducing the world's fish stock.

Developed countries managed by competent governments would convert empty warehouses into hydroponic facilities. It is unlikely that other countries would be rendered assistance. Billions of people are likely to die when this event happens.

Health and safety is everyone's responsibility, including government's. I know of no space project that has gone before that is as important as this one. A project out of necessity not national prestige. A project designed to save the human race, not high tech corporations.

I envisage this mission, designed to discover the date and magnitude of Earth - comet close encounters to be as follows:

Recent data from lunar orbiting satellites suggests that the cometary ice deposits thought to lie within these dark craters are covered by regolith, probably ejector from nearby meteorite and comet impacts. Little if any of the surface is likely to be smooth layered ice like the Greenland ice cap for instance. Much of it will be faceted due to shock waves from impacts. This will make travelling across the surface and obtaining comparable data from different sample sites difficult. Detailed radar and infra-red images of the surface will be necessary in order to determine whether a rover is feasible, otherwise a hopper will have to be employed. The more complicated the geology the more samples will be required.

Since the regolith is likely to be granular and not solid the 'sample' will have to be taken in situ using a laser. Analysis of the gases given off, possibly by the descendent of Beagle 2's instruments, will represent the signature of a cometary ice layer or an ejector event. As the laser progresses deeper into the regolith it goes further back in time, beyond the late heavy bombardment 3.8 billion years ago, when the last major impacts in this region took place. Hopefully the age of each event can be ascertained. After say one hundred samples are taken over a wide area, comparison of results should reveal which are ejector events, since these should cover a far smaller area than that of cometary/asteroid events. By eliminating them from the data the cometary events can be compared with data from Earth, hopefully.

Cometary events leave almost no record on Earth. Similarly, ice layers at the lunar poles maybe only a few centimetres thick. This sounds impossible to detect and analyse in such a hostile environment, but we will only know by trying. This area is due for survey by NASA's VIPER  (Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover) and PRIME-1 Polar Resources Ice Mining Experiment in 2022. It is now thought that there is surface ice mixed with rock, and a permafrost underneath, possibly consisting of 15% water.

This project can be accomplished either manned or unmanned. It is preferable that both approaches be attempted in order to ascertain which approach is best for the later exploration of the planet Mars.

Unmanned mission:

The lunar poles are thought to be the coldest spot in our solar system, with the exception of Pluto. It is unlikely therefore that spacesuits could maintain their integrity for long. The mission will therefore have to be unmanned, carried out by a nuclear powered rover (Darwin 2), relaying data to a polar orbiter (Prospero 2). It would have to have a high degree of independence and would probably be based upon ESA's ExoMars rover, which is currently being designed and built in the UK by Thales Alenia Space, EADS Astrium.

ExoMars (Exobiology on Mars) was an ESA Roscosmos two part project, launched by Proton rockets. Due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all Russian content has been removed from the second part, with the Rosalind Franklin rover now being launched by a US rocket. Part 1 launched in 2016 carried the Gas Trace Orbiter and (EDM) Entry Descent & Mars lander demonstrator to try out technology for the ExoMars rover landing years later, using parachute, retro rockets and air bag to land at Meridiani Planum. This lander failed. Part 2, to be launched in 2028 by a US rocket, will carry an ESA Lander (under the rover) and ExoMars rover, its objective being to investigate sources of methane at locations yet to be decided. It will be fitted with a 2m long core drill, samples from which will be analyzed by the on-board laboratory. However, in April 2024 Potsdam University announced that it had discovered a microbial ecosystem at a depth of 4m in the Atacama desert, in Chile. Will the 2m core depth now be extended. That same month NASA announced that its core sample return mission has bean cancelled due to cost. Therefore, will the rover lab now be upgraded to satisfy scientists demand for definitive proof of life on Mars?

Manned mission:

Alternatively , ESA may use a combination of an unmanned mobile core drilling rig (Boron) and manned mobile laboratory (Fort Millennium), the latter located in a sunny spot, with cores transferred between the two by a hovering transfer vehicle (Mercury). Mercury would be fuelled from the electrolysis of polar ice, as is likely to be required on Mars. This would be ESA's training ground for manned missions to Mars, essentially containing the danger and remoteness that no Earth based simulator can provide.

There are two other functions that Boron and Fort Millennium could perform, that of geological prospecting like the Curiosity rover on Mars, and the search for primitive life forms. The latter may exist on rim crater tops that are bathed in sunshine on one side and in perpetual darkness on the other. Between the two sides a habitable zone may exist, possibly fed water by extensive capillary action due to a low gravity environment. Since there is bacteria hundreds of metres below the surface of Earth and even at the deepest depths of our oceans, why can't there be life under the surface of the Moon? Since there is evidence of water in lunar regolith obtained during the Apollo era, and there is water ice at the poles, then there must be salty water in a condensate membrane elsewhere. Water could also be detected in underground sealed chambers by a radar satellite, accessed by tunnel boring machine with an airlock constructed behind it.

Recovering and dating, water thrown up into space by asteroid impacts on planet Earth, is also a possibility. Data from this mission may, years later, be backed up by similar missions to the poles of Mercury. Key problems would include the recognition, preservation and observation of primordial life. Problems that would also arise on Mars. Geologically, it maybe possible to obtain details of the Sun's activity over aeons by studying its output of helium 3, etc., deposited on the Moon.

Interpretation of the data from this mission should clearly show how much a threat to an advanced civilisation these celestial bodies are. All the data from this mission must be made available to the general public, for they have the right to appreciate the danger they are living in by pursuing a free-for-all capitalist system, instead of a highly regulated one designed to ensure their survival. I am a firm believer in a world technocracy, where citizens live in extended family groups within their own biome, producing their own electricity by PVA's, plus food and water, whilst supplying energy to a national grid in order to maintain financial independence, thereby remaining relatively immune to earthly and stellar events. If data from this mission clearly shows the necessity to live such a lifestyle, then I can honestly say that I have finally achieved something in life.

The one thing that is glaringly obvious from this chapter is the importance politicians place, of a science based civilisation in the United States. It is clear to me that there is no place in politics for small minded negative thinkers who have total contempt for seeking out knowledge, to the point where the financing of them is withheld. Governments now have to decide that with the emergence of AI, will they simply let people become unemployed, or will they create a science based economic system, where the quality of life is the primary goal over the creation of wealth.

References:

1 The dates 1159 BCE and 540 CE come from TV programmes, possibly BBC Horizon. One date is from bog oaks in Northern Ireland. The other is obtained by dendrochronology and Greenland ice cores. See: Professor Mike Baillie, Queen's University, Belfast on:

2 Astronomical Journal Vol. 89, Page 154 by Don Yeomans & Zdenek Sekanina published 1984 NASA supported research: Close Encounters And Collisions Of Comets With The Earth.

3 Other notable comets can be found on Wikipedia including:

Hale-Bopp 1997 1.315AU 60km Nucleus x 40 degree tail

Hyakutake 1996 0.1AU

Haley's Comet 1986 0.586AU

Iras-Araki-Alcock 1983 0.06AU & 0.03AU (2 comets)

Great Comet 1811 1.04AU

Comet Lexell 1770 0.015AU (6 x distance Earth to Moon)

4 A list of close approaches by comets can be found on the IAU Minor Planet Center: